Lebanon / The Levant

Bassel Doueik

Conflict & Regional Risk Analysis

Political and security analyst focused on conflict dynamics, state authority, armed actors, and regional risk across Lebanon, the Levant, and the wider Middle East.

Media requests Consult now

Featured in

  • Axios
  • Al Jazeera
  • The National
  • CBC News
  • BBC News
  • SBS News
  • WSJ

About

Interpreting conflict, power, and political change

Bassel Doueik is a political and security analyst focused on conflict dynamics, state authority, armed actors, and regional risk across Lebanon, the Levant, and the wider Middle East.

His public analysis has appeared through ACLED, The Levant Lens, Polyblog, and media interviews or commentary with outlets including Al Jazeera, The National, AnewZ, SBS News, El Espanol, BBC News, CBC News, and The Wall Street Journal.

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Working Together

Support for decision-makers

Engagements are tailored to the question at hand, with an emphasis on clear analysis, relevant context, and practical implications.

Executive & policy briefings

Decision-ready briefings on political and security developments across Lebanon and the Levant, with a focus on risk, implications, and likely trajectories

Research & advisory consultations

Focused analytical support and special reports, including security and risk assessments

Publications

Articles, expert comments, and analysis

ACLED

4 Jun 2026 Is Israel also at war with the Lebanese state? Expert comment 29 May 2026 Will Lebanon be left behind in the upcoming U.S.-Iran security framework? Expert comment 19 May 2026 Why are health workers being targeted in southern Lebanon? Expert comment 14 May 2026 Bassel Doueik on violence in Lebanon despite ceasefire Expert comment 4 May 2026 Bassel Doueik on systematic property destruction in southern Lebanon Expert comment
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17 Apr 2026 Is civil unrest poised to escalate in Lebanon? Analysis brief 13 Apr 2026 Bassel Doueik on escalation of Israeli attacks over Lebanon after Black Wednesday Expert comment 1 Apr 2026 Bassel Doueik on conflict escalation and fragmentation risks in Lebanon Expert comment 27 Mar 2026 Bassel Doueik on Hezbollah’s scaling of attacks against Israel Expert comment 19 Mar 2026 Bassel Doueik on Israeli strikes along Lebanon’s Litani River Expert comment 5 Mar 2026 Israel prepares a ground invasion in Lebanon as Hezbollah formally joins the war Analysis brief

The Levant Lens

20 Aug 2026 Israel relays a message to Turkey Analysis 28 Jul 2026 A War of Ownership Analysis 16 Jul 2026 Will Hezbollah resume its operations? Analysis 19 Jun 2026 Israel intensifies strikes in Lebanon after four soldiers killed Lebanon Watch 17 Jun 2026 Lebanon is in the deal, but not yet out of the war Lebanon Watch
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1 Apr 2026 The Last Time US Boots Hit Iranian Soil, It Didn’t End Well With Amir Daftari 9 Jan 2026 Advisory: Major airlines cancel flights to Iran today and tomorrow Advisory Jan 2026 This Week’s Spotlight: Escalating Unrest Across Iran Report 9 Dec 2025 In the Mind of Tom Barrack: The Lebanon File Report 22 Oct 2025 One Country One Army, despite the critics Essay 5 Mar 2023 Lebanon’s Federalism Odyssey Podcast / essay

Media Appearances

Quoted, interviewed, and cited

On camera & in conversation

22 Apr 2026 · AnewZ Trump ceasefire strategy raises pressure on Iran Video interview 7 May 2026 · AnewZ U.S.-Iran diplomacy gains momentum despite “strategic mistake” Video interview 19 Apr 2026 · PlusOneMedia Iran, Lebanon, and the China Squeeze Long-form conversation

Selected press commentary

GOV.UK

Country bulletin: security situation, Lebanon, May 2026

Cited in the UK Government's country bulletin on Lebanon's security situation, which references his ACLED analysis of Israeli escalation after Black Wednesday.

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Al Jazeera

Claimed Israeli capture of Lebanese ridge reshapes negotiation dynamics

Quoted on the strategic importance of the Ali al-Taher ridge and its implications for Lebanese-Israeli negotiations.

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Al Jazeera

Trump push for Syrian intervention against Hezbollah “short-sighted”

Quoted on why Syrian military intervention in Lebanon would be strategically counterproductive.

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Al Jazeera

Civilians or Hezbollah: Who did Israel hit on Lebanon’s Black Wednesday?

Quoted on Israel’s buffer-zone strategy and property destruction in southern Lebanon.

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The National

Razing southern Lebanon

Quoted on systematic property destruction in southern Lebanon during the ceasefire period.

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The National

One month into a ceasefire in name only

Quoted on a multilayered buffer-zone strategy and the widening geography of threat.

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The National

Israel ready to resume attacks on Beirut

Quoted on Israeli escalation after Hezbollah FPV drone attacks and wider Lebanon pressure.

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The National

Lebanese soldiers killed outside occupied yellow line

Quoted on how attacks on security forces complicate the Lebanese state’s authority project.

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SBS News

How Lebanon is being pulled into Israel’s plan to reshape the Middle East

Quoted on how Hezbollah’s actions test Lebanese state authority over war decisions.

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CBC News

Why Canada’s reaction to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon is so different this time

Quoted on Israeli buffer-zone strategy, displacement pressures, and fears of long-term occupation in southern Lebanon.

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El Espanol

Lebanon, Hezbollah, reconstruction, and disarmament

Quoted on reform, reconstruction, donor conditionality, and the politics of Hezbollah disarmament.

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Wall Street Journal / Tovima

Bombs Fell Like Rain

Quoted on civilian harm and the use of fighter jets in Israel’s April 2026 Lebanon strikes.

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